In my blog entry from yesterday, I mentioned the Jake Peavy rumors in connection with the Milwaukee Brewers. Let me expound on that a little bit more in the second entry of my humble MLBlog.
![jake-peavy-padres[1].jpg](http://themaseplace.mlblogs.com/jake-peavy-padres%5B1%5D.jpg)
Jake Peavy. Great pitcher, isn't he? Two time All-Star, and former Cy Young Aard winner. He sure would be a nice upgrade to the Milwaukee Brewers current rotation. The rumors started swirling during this off-season, when there was some speculation the Padres would be looking to clear out some salary as they were possibly going into a rebuilding phase. Some of the rumor mongering may have gotten out of hand, when a simple quote from Bill Hall got taken way out of context. Following an ownership change, a salary clearing would not be all that unexpected. Peavy is slated to make a total of around $8 million this season, with pay increases in the $15-17 million range over the next three years, and then a team option final year at around $22 million. One could argue the contract is fairly reasonable, but for a mid-level team like San Diego, it is still a hindrance as far as making additional acquisitions.
It would possibly be a hindrance to a team like the Brewers as well (who play in the smallest media market in baseball). Another factor is that Peavy is apparently demanding that whatever team acquires him pick up his final year of the contract in order to waive his no trade clause (those are always pesky things, aren't they?). So you're looking at paying a pitcher a total of about $70 million over the next four seasons. Pricey, but not in the astronomical range that guys like CC Sabathia and Johan Santana have gotten.
Of course, this all begs the question: What would the Brewers actually have to give up in order to pry Peavy away from the Friars? (Putting aside whether or not Peavy would be willing to come to the team that features some of his former teammates like Mike Cameron and Trevor Hoffman.) Well, he won't come cheap, that's for sure. San Diego wants pitching...MLB ready starting pitching, to boot. The Brewers currently do not have any top prospects knocking on the door in AAA, or even AA, really. The guy who is considered their top pitching prospect, Jeremy Jeffress, is apparently over whatever drug issues he had a while back (he served a 50 game suspsension in 2008)...but he was recently sent back down to AA Huntsville. So you can't expect him to be with the Brew Crew anytime soon. Tim Dillard is currently throwing well in AAA for the Nashville Sounds, but he is more of a low ceiling kind of guy, and probably isn't a major bargaining chip.
Yovani Gallardo, the Brewers current #1 in the rotation, certainly isn't going anywhere. Which would mean if the Brewer have to give up someone, it would probably be this guy:
Nope, that's not Corey Feldman turned Major League starting pitcher. That would be Manny Parra. At 26 years old, Parra is probably a bit behind the curve as far as developing into an upper tier starting pitcher. He has good stuff, but his sometimes lack of confidence and lack of control have been documented.
Parra by himself would not be enough. The Brewers would have to give up other pieces as well. Names like Alcides Escobar and even Corey Hart have been batted about on the various message boards and news blogs. Ultimately, I don't think it's necessarily a question of whether or not the Brewers could put together a package that would seem fair to San Diego. It's whether they should trade for Peavy to begin with.
There's no doubt in my mind that if you switch Peavy out for Parra, it makes the team instantly better for this season. A Jake Peavy led Brewers would have to be considered a heavy favorite to win the NL Central, and also might even be argued as a favorite to win the NL Pennant. Yeah, I know...Dodgers, Phillies, etc...plus it's still only May. The team just fell out of first place, but could easily overcome the Cardinals yet again, soon enough. The hype and ticket sales that would surround a Jake Peavy trade are no doubt also appealing to the Brewers (though they are on pace to have success similar to their 3 million-plus attendance of last season).
My feeling on the situation is that if the Brewers can get Peavy without clearing out their farm system, it's extremely appealing. But I can't help but feel that contract would hamstring them from making other impact moves in the future. While Peavy is a great pitcher, he's not going to have the same impact that CC Sabathia had last season. I would rather see them target someone like Cliff Lee from the Indians.
The reigning American League Cy Young winner. A good pitcher, but with a much shorter time of commitment. He's signed through next season at a rate of around $8 million, and then a free agent. The Indians are out of contention for this season, realistically, and might be looking to clear some salary in exchange for prospects. Sensing a pattern here? You are if you've been following things since last season.
I believe the Brewers have a special team on their hands, and they need to "go for it" again this season. Their current window of opportunity is closing fast, with shortstop J.J. Hardy a free agent after this year, and slugging first baseman Prince Fielder under control for only two more seasons. I also believe it's asking a lot of a 23 year old pitcher to anchor your rotation for an entire season. With a solid lineup, I think the Brewers will want to bolster their rotation to make sure they have enough pitching depth for the stretch run in August and September. With Peavy, Lee, and others potentially available, something seems likely.
What do you all think?